The Cautionary Tale of the AGM-183 Arrow Program

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. The Hypersonic Arms Race
3. The AGM-183 Arrow Program
4. Testing Woes and Setbacks
5. Political Pressure and Rushed Development
6. The Importance of Strategic Focus
7. Lessons Learned from the AGM-183 Arrow Program
8. The Future of Hypersonic Weapons
9. Conclusion

The AGM-183 Arrow Program: A Cautionary Tale of Rushed Development

The race to develop hypersonic weapons has been a hot topic in recent years, with Russia and China already fielding their own hypersonic missiles. In response, the United States Air Force launched the AGM-183 Arrow program, with the intention of closing the perceived capability gap between the US and its geopolitical rivals. However, after several testing failures, the Air Force announced that it would no longer push the AGM-183 Arrow into production. This marks a significant setback for America's efforts to field effective hypersonic weapons, and raises questions about the rush to develop such weapons in the first place.

The Hypersonic Arms Race

The modern hypersonic arms race is not just about who fields the first hypersonic missile, but who fields the most effective, capable, and reliable weapon systems that fit within an overarching combat strategy and sound military doctrine. While Russia views hypersonic weapons as a means to deter Western aggression with the threat of nuclear strikes, China's hypersonic efforts are aimed at eliminating the AdVantage American aircraft carriers provide in terms of force projection in the Pacific. America's conventionally armed hypersonics, like the AGM-183 Arrow, are clearly aimed at neither of these goals, but are instead focused on the ability to rapidly respond to a wide variety of potential threats anywhere on the globe.

The AGM-183 Arrow Program

The AGM-183 Arrow program was intended to field an air-to-ground hypersonic glide vehicle capable of sustained speeds between Mach 6 and 8, with a range of just about a thousand miles. It was a very large weapon, intended to be carried by bombers like the B-52, B-1B, B-2, and potentially some fighters like the F-15E Strike Eagle. The AGM-183 Arrow was classified as a section 804 rapid prototyping middle tier of acquisition program, building off of previous progress made by DARPA in the HGV realm. In layman's terms, this meant that the AGM-183 Arrow was meant to make its way into service at practically hypersonic speeds.

Testing Woes and Setbacks

The AGM-183 Arrow program saw seven publicly disclosed test launches since 2021, with four of those tests ending in complete failure. While failures are par for the course during the development of new weapon systems, Arrow's testing woes came during portions of the testing regime that one wouldn't expect issues. If Arrow had failed while trying to perform aggressive maneuvers at hypersonic speeds, that would make perfect Sense. But instead, most of its failures came when it simply didn't separate from the launching aircraft or its rocket motor just didn't Ignite. The tests where Arrow did separate effectively and ignite went on to perform just fine at hypersonic speeds. These failures really point toward overarching issues with the Arrow program, both in terms of its intended goals and the rush to put it into service.

Political Pressure and Rushed Development

The Pentagon recognized that it would soon face significant political and media pressure to match the advanced capabilities of Russia and China. This created problems because there's not much strategic value in directly matching these Russian and Chinese capabilities. America's ICBM and SLBM arsenals could already overcome Russian and Chinese missile defenses, and there are new ICBMs already in development. Likewise, the US has no pressing need for a long-range anti-ship weapon for sure defense because the US isn't laying an illegal claim to a vast swath of the Pacific Ocean like China. However, the pressure to field a hypersonic weapon into service may have been what broke the AGM-183 Arrow program.

The Importance of Strategic Focus

The AGM-183 Arrow program is a cautionary tale about the importance of keeping your eye on the strategic ball. When the focus of new weapon programs becomes appeasing the aggressive questioning of politicians or responding to hyperbolic headlines about a modern-day arms race, the result is always going to be a disappointment. The nation that fields the first hypersonic weapon will probably win the headline race, but the nation that fields the most effective, capable, cost-effective, reliable, and strategy-Based ones may not win that headline race, but they may just win the next big war.

Lessons Learned from the AGM-183 Arrow Program

The AGM-183 Arrow program faced technical hurdles and portions of the testing regime that most programs might take for granted. The rush to develop the AGM-183 Arrow program faced political pressure and rushed development, which ultimately doomed the program to an early demise. However, the data accumulated through Arrow will certainly benefit future efforts, and that effort to field a capable and effective American defense is ultimately what this is all about.

The Future of Hypersonic Weapons

Despite the AGM-183 Arrow program's fate, the Air Force does still have two test models of the weapon left that it doesn't intend to fire and follow-on tests. These tests will really be for the benefit of future programs rather than efforts to mature Arrow itself toward a production contract that we now know isn't coming. The Air Force is now pivoting its focus to the scramjet-powered hypersonic attack cruise missile (HACM) that's cruising towards service as soon as 2027. But there is a long list of other hypersonic programs following closely behind, with the number at last count being over 70.

Conclusion

The AGM-183 Arrow program is a cautionary tale about the importance of strategic focus and the dangers of rushed development. While the rush to field hypersonic weapons may be driven by political and media pressure, it's important to keep in mind that the nation that fields the most effective, capable, cost-effective, reliable, and strategy-based hypersonic weapons may not win the headline race, but they may just win the next big war.

Highlights

• The AGM-183 Arrow program was intended to close the perceived capability gap between the US and its geopolitical rivals.
• The AGM-183 Arrow program saw seven publicly disclosed test launches since 2021, with four of those tests ending in complete failure.
• The rush to field a hypersonic weapon into service may have been what broke the AGM-183 Arrow program.
• The AGM-183 Arrow program is a cautionary tale about the importance of strategic focus and the dangers of rushed development.
• The nation that fields the most effective, capable, cost-effective, reliable, and strategy-based hypersonic weapons may not win the headline race, but they may just win the next big war.

FAQ

Q: What is the AGM-183 Arrow program? A: The AGM-183 Arrow program was intended to field an air-to-ground hypersonic glide vehicle capable of sustained speeds between Mach 6 and 8, with a range of just about a thousand miles.

Q: Why did the AGM-183 Arrow program fail? A: The AGM-183 Arrow program faced technical hurdles and portions of the testing regime that most programs might take for granted. The rush to develop the AGM-183 Arrow program faced political pressure and rushed development, which ultimately doomed the program to an early demise.

Q: What is the future of hypersonic weapons? A: Despite the AGM-183 Arrow program's fate, the Air Force is now pivoting its focus to the scramjet-powered hypersonic attack cruise missile (HACM) that's cruising towards service as soon as 2027. But there is a long list of other hypersonic programs following closely behind, with the number at last count being over 70.