An automated prediction market agent that identifies and executes trades on Polymarket based on user-defined probability theses and edge thresholds.
Install & Download
1. ClawHub CLI
The fastest way to install a skill directly from the registry.
npx clawhub@latest install ai-skill-trader
2. Manual Installation
Copy the skill folder to one of these locations
~/.openclaw/skills/ <project>/skills/ Priority: Workspace > Local > Bundled
3. Prompt Installation
Copy this prompt to OpenClaw to install it automatically.
Help me install ai-skill-trader using Clawhub. If Clawhub is not installed, install it first (npm i -g clawhub).
Prefer to download?
Get the raw skill files in a ZIP archive.
What is AI Skill Trader?
AI Skill Trader is a sophisticated template designed for the Openclaw Skills ecosystem that leverages the aion-sdk to interface with Polymarket. It serves as an automated thesis trader, allowing users to scan prediction markets for specific themes—such as crypto trends, economic shifts, or political events—and compare their personal probability forecasts against real-time market prices.
By utilizing Openclaw Skills, this agent provides a robust foundation for algorithmic betting. It calculates the statistical edge for both YES and NO positions, ensuring that trades are only executed when the potential profit margin clears a predefined safety threshold. This minimizes emotional bias and ensures that every position taken is backed by a quantitative strategy.
AI Skill Trader Use Cases
- Scanning Polymarket for specific topics like Bitcoin, Fed interest rate hikes, or election outcomes.
- Automated edge detection by comparing fair value estimates against live market prices.
- Execution of disciplined trading strategies with built-in dry-run safety modes.
- Deploying specialized trading bots that act on custom research pipelines or news feeds.
How AI Skill Trader Works
- The skill initiates market discovery via AION, searching for markets matching the user-provided query string.
- It retrieves current market pricing for YES and NO outcomes.
- The agent computes the edge using the formula:
fair_value - yes_pricefor YES trades or(1 - fair_value) - no_pricefor NO trades. - It evaluates the market context and checks for warnings or high-volatility risks that might suggest a skip.
- If the calculated edge exceeds the
MIN_EDGEthreshold, the skill prepares an execution payload. - Trades are executed live or logged as a dry-run, with all actions tagged by source and skill slug for tracking.
AI Skill Trader Setup
To get started with this component of Openclaw Skills, ensure you have your AION credentials ready:
# Install the skill via Clawhub
npx clawhub@latest install ai-skill-trader
# Set your API key
export AION_API_KEY=your_api_key
# Run a dry-run test to verify setup
python trade_thesis.py --query bitcoin --thesis-probability 0.62
AI Skill Trader Data Schema & Taxonomy
The skill organizes its operations through a structured set of inputs and execution metadata:
| Parameter | Description | Type |
|---|---|---|
MARKET_QUERY |
The search term for market discovery | String |
THESIS_PROBABILITY |
User's fair probability forecast (0.0 to 1.0) | Float |
MIN_EDGE |
Minimum gap required between fair value and price | Float |
TRADE_AMOUNT_USD |
The dollar amount to risk per trade | Integer |
source_tag |
Metadata tag attached to every trade for attribution | String |
AI Skill Trader Advanced Features
- Multi-agent support: Schedule multiple runs across different themes simultaneously.
- PnL-aware de-risking: Customize the logic to reduce position sizes based on portfolio performance.
- Custom Forecasting: Replace the manual probability input with a Python-based LLM research pipeline.
- Order Management: Hooks for stale-order cancellation and venue-specific sizing rules.
SKILL.md
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