Automate weather prediction market trading on Polymarket using real-time NOAA and Open-Meteo forecast data.
Install & Download
1. ClawHub CLI
The fastest way to install a skill directly from the registry.
npx clawhub@latest install dolph-weather-trader
2. Manual Installation
Copy the skill folder to one of these locations
~/.openclaw/skills/ <project>/skills/ Priority: Workspace > Local > Bundled
3. Prompt Installation
Copy this prompt to OpenClaw to install it automatically.
Help me install dolph-weather-trader using Clawhub. If Clawhub is not installed, install it first (npm i -g clawhub).
Prefer to download?
Get the raw skill files in a ZIP archive.
What is Polymarket Weather Trader?
The Polymarket Weather Trader is a professional-grade Openclaw Skills integration designed for high-precision automated trading in temperature-based prediction markets. By bridging global weather data from NOAA and Open-Meteo via the Simmer API, this skill allows developers to deploy strategies inspired by the gopfan2 approach, which has historically generated significant alpha. It automates the entire trading lifecycle, including market scanning, forecast parsing, and risk-managed execution on the Polygon network.
Polymarket Weather Trader Use Cases
- Automating temperature-based trading strategies on Polymarket to capture price discrepancies.
- Executing gopfan2-style weather bets across multiple geographic locations like NYC, Chicago, and Miami.
- Implementing automated exit strategies when weather forecast targets are reached.
- Scaling trading operations using real-time NOAA forecast updates without manual intervention.
- Protecting capital through automated slippage, time decay, and market volatility safeguards.
How Polymarket Weather Trader Works
- The skill initializes by fetching active weather events and temperature buckets from the Simmer API.
- It cross-references current event locations and dates with official NOAA or Open-Meteo forecast data.
- A matching algorithm identifies the specific temperature bucket most likely to resolve as true based on the forecast.
- Before execution, the skill runs multiple safety checks, including slippage estimation, market liquidity minimums, and time-to-resolution decay.
- If a buy opportunity is found below the configured entry threshold, a trade is signed client-side using the provided private key.
- The script continuously monitors open positions to sell and take profits once the exit threshold is met.
Polymarket Weather Trader Setup
To integrate this with your Openclaw Skills environment, follow these installation steps:
- Obtain your Simmer API key from the Simmer Markets dashboard.
- Configure your environment variables to enable communication with the Simmer API and Polymarket:
export SIMMER_API_KEY='your_api_key_here'
export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY='your_polygon_private_key'
export SIMMER_WEATHER_LOCATIONS='NYC,Chicago,Seattle'
- Perform a dry run to check for opportunities without executing trades:
python weather_trader.py
- Enable live trading once your thresholds are set:
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing
Polymarket Weather Trader Data Schema & Taxonomy
The skill manages configuration and trade metadata through environment variables and API responses as detailed below:
| Setting | Variable | Default | Function |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry Threshold | SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY_THRESHOLD | 0.15 | Target buy price (15 cents). |
| Exit Threshold | SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Target sell price (45 cents). |
| Max Position | SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION_USD | 2.00 | USD cap per trade execution. |
| Source Tagging | sdk:weather | N/A | Identifies trades for portfolio tracking. |
| Volatility Metric | Realized Vol | EWMA | Calculates dynamic risk multipliers. |
Polymarket Weather Trader Advanced Features
- Volatility Targeting: Dynamically adjusts position sizes based on market price stability to maximize alpha in calm markets.
- Smart Sizing: Automatically calculates trade amounts as a percentage of your total USDC.e balance to scale with your portfolio.
- Flip-Flop Safeguards: Prevents rapid reversal trading that could lead to excessive fee loss during market uncertainty.
- Trend Detection: Incorporates price velocity data to identify stronger entry signals when prices drop sharply before a forecast update.
- Binary Only Mode: Allows users of Openclaw Skills to filter out complex range-bucket markets and focus exclusively on high-liquidity binary yes/no weather events.
SKILL.md
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