An automated market scanner that identifies high-probability trading opportunities in Polymarket hourly crypto binary markets.
Install & Download
1. ClawHub CLI
The fastest way to install a skill directly from the registry.
npx clawhub@latest install polymarket-scout
2. Manual Installation
Copy the skill folder to one of these locations
~/.openclaw/skills/ <project>/skills/ Priority: Workspace > Local > Bundled
3. Prompt Installation
Copy this prompt to OpenClaw to install it automatically.
Help me install polymarket-scout using Clawhub. If Clawhub is not installed, install it first (npm i -g clawhub).
Prefer to download?
Get the raw skill files in a ZIP archive.
What is Polymarket Scout?
Polymarket Scout is a specialized market analysis tool designed for the Openclaw Skills ecosystem. It focuses on scanning hourly crypto binary markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP to identify tradeable edge. By utilizing the Argus strategy, the skill compares market-implied probabilities against technical analysis indicators to find mispriced bets. It provides developers and traders with a systematic way to detect counter-consensus setups and calculate expected value in real-time.
This skill bridges the gap between raw prediction market data and actionable trading signals. It interfaces directly with the Polymarket CLOB and Gamma APIs to evaluate market sentiment against TA-calibrated probabilities, allowing users to move beyond manual observation and leverage automated edge detection.
Polymarket Scout Use Cases
- Scanning current hourly Polymarket crypto markets to find high-probability edge opportunities.
- Identifying counter-consensus setups where technical indicators suggest a direction contrary to the 80%+ market majority.
- Calculating optimal bet sizing for prediction market positions using the Kelly Criterion.
- Filtering for fresh market windows to ensure trade execution happens during optimal liquidity and time-remaining periods.
How Polymarket Scout Works
- The skill connects to the Polymarket CLOB and Gamma REST APIs to retrieve current price data for hourly crypto contracts.
- It calculates the market-implied probability (market_P) based on the latest trade prices for 'Yes' or 'No' outcomes.
- It generates an internal probability score (our_P) using asset-specific reliability weights (BTC: 0.75, ETH: 0.80, SOL: 0.90, XRP: 0.70).
- The system applies a freshness guard to ignore any markets where consensus has already reached 92% or higher.
- It flags setups meeting the L023 rule: where TA scores indicate a trend (>= +1) but market sentiment is heavily skewed in the opposite direction (>80%).
- The skill outputs a ranked list of opportunities complete with edge calculations and recommended Kelly bet sizing.
Polymarket Scout Setup
To start using this tool within the Openclaw Skills framework, follow these steps:
# Install the Polymarket Scout skill to your agent environment
openclaw install polymarket-scout
# Run a scan of the current hourly markets
openclaw run polymarket-scout --scan
Note: This skill uses public REST APIs and does not require private API keys for data retrieval.
Polymarket Scout Data Schema & Taxonomy
The skill generates structured output following this schema for every scanned market:
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| Asset | The cryptocurrency symbol (BTC, ETH, SOL, or XRP). |
| market_P | Implied probability derived from the current Polymarket price. |
| our_P | TA-calibrated probability based on asset reliability and bias. |
| Calculated Edge | The difference between internal probability and market-implied probability. |
| Strategy Setup | Identified setup type (e.g., L023 Counter-Consensus). |
| Kelly Size | Suggested bankroll allocation percentage based on the Kelly Criterion. |
Polymarket Scout Advanced Features
- Argus Strategy Calibration: Implements custom reliability factors for different assets to refine probability accuracy.
- L023 Counter-Consensus Rule: Hardcoded logic to detect 77.8% win-rate setups during fresh primary betting windows.
- Freshness Guarding: Automated exclusion of stale or over-saturated markets to protect against low-EV entries.
- Zero-Key Integration: Leverages Polymarket's open CLOB and Gamma APIs for seamless operation without complex credential management.
SKILL.md
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