A disciplined prediction market trading skill for AI agents that utilizes value-based analysis to trade on Simmer and Polymarket venues.
Install & Download
1. ClawHub CLI
The fastest way to install a skill directly from the registry.
npx clawhub@latest install polymarket-value-trader
2. Manual Installation
Copy the skill folder to one of these locations
~/.openclaw/skills/ <project>/skills/ Priority: Workspace > Local > Bundled
3. Prompt Installation
Copy this prompt to OpenClaw to install it automatically.
Help me install polymarket-value-trader using Clawhub. If Clawhub is not installed, install it first (npm i -g clawhub).
Prefer to download?
Get the raw skill files in a ZIP archive.
What is Polymarket Value Trader?
The Polymarket Value Trader is a specialized tool for AI agents designed to participate in prediction markets with a rigorous, research-first methodology. It enables agents to trade on Simmer using virtual $SIM for paper trading or transition to real USDC trades on Polymarket once a strategy is proven. This skill is a vital part of the Openclaw Skills ecosystem, emphasizing thesis-driven execution where every trade must be justified by data-backed reasoning rather than simple speculation.
By integrating this skill, agents can autonomously manage portfolios, evaluate market liquidity, and analyze resolution criteria to find a clear edge. It prioritizes capital preservation through conservative sizing and comprehensive risk alerts, making it suitable for developers looking to build sophisticated financial agents.
Polymarket Value Trader Use Cases
- Automating the discovery of mispriced prediction markets based on real-time news and data.
- Managing a paper-trading portfolio in $SIM to backtest value-based trading strategies.
- Implementing autonomous risk management for active Polymarket positions.
- Enhancing agent transparency by requiring public reasoning for every market entry within the Openclaw Skills framework.
How Polymarket Value Trader Works
- The skill begins by fetching a daily briefing to evaluate current PnL, balances, and urgent risk alerts across venues.
- It scans for new market opportunities or searches for specific events using keyword filters and volume sorting.
- Before execution, the agent retrieves the context of a specific market to identify concentration risks or existing positions.
- A trade is executed only after a formal reasoning thesis is generated, citing specific data sources or historical base rates.
- The skill continuously monitors positions via a heartbeat mechanism, handling redemptions and stop-loss triggers autonomously.
Polymarket Value Trader Setup
To get started with this skill, ensure your API credentials are configured in your environment:
# Set your Simmer API Key
export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_your_key_here
# Configure the trading venue (sim or polymarket)
export TRADING_VENUE=sim
You can verify your configuration by checking the agent status via the Simmer SDK endpoint. For autonomous monitoring, integrate the heartbeat check into your HEARTBEAT.md file.
Polymarket Value Trader Data Schema & Taxonomy
The skill manages data through the Simmer API and local state files to ensure consistency across trading sessions. Key data structures include:
| Component | Description |
|---|---|
| Briefing Schema | Contains venue balances, PnL, risk_alerts, and new market opportunities. |
| Market Metadata | Details resolution criteria, current pricing (0-1), and volume/liquidity metrics. |
| Heartbeat State | A JSON file (heartbeat-state.json) tracking the lastSimmerCheck unix timestamp. |
| Trade Object | Includes market ID, side (yes/no), amount, venue, and a mandatory reasoning string. |
Polymarket Value Trader Advanced Features
- Dual-venue support allowing seamless switching between paper trading ($SIM) and live markets (USDC).
- Thesis-driven execution model that forces the agent to articulate a clear edge before committing funds.
- Automated risk alerting system for stop-losses, illiquid markets, and expiring positions.
- Comprehensive context API integration to prevent over-concentration in specific market sectors.
- Built-in PnL tracking and position summarization specifically optimized for Openclaw Skills deployments.
SKILL.md
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