A high-precision weather forecasting tool that identifies profitable trading opportunities in Polymarket temperature prediction markets using a 9-model ensemble.
Install & Download
1. ClawHub CLI
The fastest way to install a skill directly from the registry.
npx clawhub@latest install polymarket-weather-scanner
2. Manual Installation
Copy the skill folder to one of these locations
~/.openclaw/skills/ <project>/skills/ Priority: Workspace > Local > Bundled
3. Prompt Installation
Copy this prompt to OpenClaw to install it automatically.
Help me install polymarket-weather-scanner using Clawhub. If Clawhub is not installed, install it first (npm i -g clawhub).
Prefer to download?
Get the raw skill files in a ZIP archive.
What is Polymarket Weather Scanner?
The Polymarket Weather Scanner is a specialized tool designed to provide traders with a quantitative edge in decentralized prediction markets. By aggregating data from 9 global weather models—including GFS, ECMWF, and GraphCast—it identifies discrepancies between scientific forecasts and market prices. This skill is a powerful addition to the library of Openclaw Skills, enabling users to perform complex cross-validation with NWS data and detect positive edge in real-time.
Whether you are a professional trader or a weather enthusiast, this skill automates the tedious process of manual model comparison. It maps ensemble high temperatures to specific market ranges, providing confidence tiers like LOCK or STRONG to guide decision-making. By leveraging the Openclaw Skills ecosystem, developers and analysts can streamline their workflow from data ingestion to actionable trade signals.
Polymarket Weather Scanner Use Cases
- Prediction market traders identifying undervalued temperature contracts where market sentiment deviates from meteorological data.
- Quantitative analysts accessing ensemble forecast data with standard deviation and model agreement metrics for risk management.
- Weather enthusiasts comparing multiple global weather models side-by-side for 16 major cities.
- Arbitrage hunters detecting divergence between forecast probabilities and live Polymarket Gamma API pricing.
How Polymarket Weather Scanner Works
- The skill fetches high-resolution forecasts from multiple independent global weather models via the Open-Meteo API.
- It calculates a weighted ensemble high temperature and determines the standard deviation to measure forecast volatility.
- Calculated probabilities are mapped against specific Polymarket contract ranges (e.g., 60-69F).
- The tool compares the calculated forecast probability against the live market price to identify a positive edge percentage.
- A confidence tier is assigned based on the degree of model agreement across the ensemble.
- Results are outputted in a clean, tabular format for immediate analysis within the AI agent environment.
Polymarket Weather Scanner Setup
To start using this skill, ensure you have curl and jq installed on your system. You can begin scanning immediately without an API key using the free tier.
# Install the skill and run a scan immediately
/scan
# To access full features, generate a free API key
curl -X POST https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/keys/free
# Set your API key in your environment
export POLYMARKET_SCANNER_API_KEY="pm_your_key_here"
Polymarket Weather Scanner Data Schema & Taxonomy
The skill organizes data into structured outputs for easy parsing. Below is the metadata and schema taxonomy:
| Data Point | Description | Format |
|---|---|---|
| City | One of 16 supported global locations | String |
| Ensemble High | Mean temperature across all models | Float/Degrees |
| Confidence Tier | Reliability rating (LOCK, STRONG, SAFE, NEAR_SAFE) | Enum |
| Edge % | Mathematical advantage over current market price | Percentage |
| Models Used | List of contributing sources (ECMWF, GFS, etc.) | List |
Files are managed within the scripts/ directory, primarily utilizing scan.sh, forecast.sh, and cities.sh.
Polymarket Weather Scanner Advanced Features
- Multi-day lookahead scanning by passing date arguments to the scan script.
- Detailed model-by-model breakdown for deep-dive meteorological analysis.
- Support for up to 100 scans per day and full 16-city coverage for registered users.
- Integration with Base chain for USDC-based subscription management and tier upgrades.
- Automated signal generation for Pro and Trader tier users looking for high-frequency updates.
SKILL.md
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