A quantitative analysis tool for identifying US market bubble risks using the Minsky/Kindleberger framework and objective market metrics.
Install & Download
1. ClawHub CLI
The fastest way to install a skill directly from the registry.
npx clawhub@latest install us-market-bubble-detector
2. Manual Installation
Copy the skill folder to one of these locations
~/.openclaw/skills/ <project>/skills/ Priority: Workspace > Local > Bundled
3. Prompt Installation
Copy this prompt to OpenClaw to install it automatically.
Help me install us-market-bubble-detector using Clawhub. If Clawhub is not installed, install it first (npm i -g clawhub).
Prefer to download?
Get the raw skill files in a ZIP archive.
What is US Market Bubble Detector?
The US Market Bubble Detector is a sophisticated analytical skill designed for the Openclaw Skills ecosystem, enabling investors to move beyond subjective sentiment and into data-driven risk assessment. By utilizing a revised v2.1 framework based on the Minsky/Kindleberger model, this skill prioritizes hard metrics like the Put/Call ratio, VIX, margin debt, and IPO performance to determine the current market phase. It serves as a critical tool for those needing to decide on profit-taking, new entries, or short-selling by providing a mechanical scoring system that prevents confirmation bias and emotional overreaction to price action.
This specific implementation within Openclaw Skills ensures a disciplined two-phase evaluation process. It mandates quantitative data collection before any qualitative adjustments are made, effectively capping subjective impressions to ensure the final risk score is independently verifiable. Whether you are managing personal portfolios or providing institutional-grade research, this skill offers a granular risk budget approach—ranging from Normal to Critical—to help maintain capital preservation during periods of market euphoria.
US Market Bubble Detector Use Cases
- Determining if the current US market is in a bubble phase based on historical thresholds.
- Deciding the timing for profit-taking or adjusting risk budgets for existing positions.
- Evaluating the impact of social phenomena, such as non-investors entering the market or media frenzy.
- Assessing risk management strategies when this time is different narratives become mainstream.
- Identifying short-selling opportunities through a 7-item composite condition check.
How US Market Bubble Detector Works
- The agent initiates mandatory quantitative data collection covering market structure (VIX, P/C Ratio), leverage (Margin Debt), and IPO activity.
- A mechanical scoring process is applied to the collected data across six key indicators to generate a base score out of 12.
- A strict qualitative adjustment phase allows for a maximum of +3 points based on verified social penetration and media trends.
- A confirmation bias prevention checklist is processed to ensure all adjustments are backed by measurable evidence rather than impressions.
- A final judgment is rendered, placing the market into one of five risk phases (Normal to Critical) with associated risk budget recommendations.
US Market Bubble Detector Setup
To integrate this with your environment, ensure you have access to the Openclaw Skills framework and follow these steps:
- Install the skill into your agent directory:
openclaw install us-market-bubble-detector
- Configure your data sources for VIX and Put/Call ratios in the skill settings.
- (Optional) Load specific implementation guides for first-time use:
openclaw load-reference implementation_guide.md
US Market Bubble Detector Data Schema & Taxonomy
| Data Category | Metrics Tracked | Source Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Market Structure | 5-day MA Put/Call Ratio, VIX Percentile | CBOE, Yahoo Finance |
| Leverage | FINRA Margin Debt (YoY %), Position Sizing | FINRA, JSF |
| Breadth | % Stocks above 50-day MA | Barchart |
| IPO Activity | Quarterly Count, Median 1st Day Return | Renaissance Capital |
| Sentiment | Google Trends Multiplier, Media Covers | Google Trends, Time Magazine |
US Market Bubble Detector Advanced Features
- Automated calculation of the 95th percentile for 3-month price acceleration to identify unsustainable rallies.
- Integrated confirmation bias prevention checklist to filter out subjective narrative points.
- Support for both US and Japanese market data sources including Nikkei Futures and JNIVE.
- Composite condition monitoring for short-selling signals, requiring at least 3 of 7 items for active consideration.
- Nuanced risk budget allocation specifically tailored to the Elevated Risk phase (8-9 points).
SKILL.md
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