A high-precision trading assistant that identifies profitable discrepancies between NOAA scientific models and retail weather prediction markets.
Install & Download
1. ClawHub CLI
The fastest way to install a skill directly from the registry.
npx clawhub@latest install weather-arbitrage
2. Manual Installation
Copy the skill folder to one of these locations
~/.openclaw/skills/ <project>/skills/ Priority: Workspace > Local > Bundled
3. Prompt Installation
Copy this prompt to OpenClaw to install it automatically.
Help me install weather-arbitrage using Clawhub. If Clawhub is not installed, install it first (npm i -g clawhub).
Prefer to download?
Get the raw skill files in a ZIP archive.
What is Weather Arbitrage Assistant v3.0?
The Weather Arbitrage Assistant is a sophisticated financial tool designed for Openclaw Skills that exploits the information asymmetry between federal meteorological supercomputers and retail market sentiment. While typical market participants rely on consumer-grade weather apps, this skill integrates directly with NOAA's atmospheric models—which utilize satellites, ocean buoys, and Doppler radar—to provide a scientific edge in markets like Polymarket.
By focusing on the gap between federal science and retail guesswork, the tool allows users to execute trades based on a 93% accuracy rate for 48-hour forecasts. It is specifically optimized for Openclaw Skills users seeking a systematic, data-driven approach to weather-based prediction markets, offering a proven NOAA arbitrage mode with a historical 91% win rate.
Weather Arbitrage Assistant v3.0 Use Cases
- Exploiting information arbitrage opportunities when NOAA data contradicts retail market pricing on Polymarket.
- Automating the monitoring of temperature-based contracts in major cities like Chicago, Phoenix, and Dallas.
- Backtesting custom trading strategies against historical 2024 meteorological data.
- Managing risk across high-frequency weather trades using automated confidence thresholds.
- Simulating trade outcomes to validate prediction models without committing real capital.
How Weather Arbitrage Assistant v3.0 Works
- The skill initiates a scan of meteorological data from high-fidelity sources including NOAA, ECMWF, and GFS.
- It concurrently pulls real-time contract prices from prediction platforms to identify price-to-probability discrepancies.
- The system applies a confidence filter, prioritizing trades where the NOAA accuracy exceeds 85% and the market price is undervalued (e.g., < 15 cents).
- In continuous monitoring mode, the tool refreshes every two minutes to capture rapid shifts in market sentiment or atmospheric updates.
- Traders receive actionable signals including expected ROI, specific entry/exit points, and suggested bet sizes based on edge percentage.
Weather Arbitrage Assistant v3.0 Setup
To deploy this tool within your Openclaw Skills environment, ensure Node.js is installed and use the following commands:
# Run a single NOAA arbitrage scan
node scripts/arbitrage.js noaa
# Enable continuous market monitoring (refreshes every 2 mins)
node scripts/arbitrage.js watch
# Analyze a specific city with multi-source weighted forecasting
node scripts/arbitrage.js city "Chicago"
# Run in development mode to skip transaction fees
SKILLPAY_DEV=true node scripts/arbitrage.js city "Miami"
Weather Arbitrage Assistant v3.0 Data Schema & Taxonomy
The skill organizes its operations through a structured data taxonomy involving meteorological sources and trading thresholds:
| Component | Source | Accuracy/Function |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Model | NOAA GFS | Highest accuracy (93%) for arbitrage |
| Secondary Models | ECMWF, ICON, GEM | Weighted ensemble for temperature predictions |
| Market Feed | Polymarket, Kalshi | Real-time pricing and liquidity analysis |
| Trade Logs | Internal JSON/CSV | Tracks ROI, hit rates, and city-specific performance |
Data is filtered by city-specific parameters, focusing on high-accuracy regions such as Chicago and Miami while flagging high-variance zones like New York.
Weather Arbitrage Assistant v3.0 Advanced Features
- NOAA Arbitrage Mode: A specialized pure-arbitrage engine focusing on information gaps rather than just weather predictions.
- Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble: Combines German (ICON), Canadian (GEM), and European (ECMWF) models for superior temperature laddering.
- Dynamic Risk Management: Automatically adjusts position sizes and intervals based on the calculated edge and confidence level.
- Automated Backtesting Suite: Evaluates strategy viability using historical March 2024 data to find the most profitable urban centers.
- Simulation Engine: Allows Openclaw Skills users to test high-frequency trading logic in a risk-free sandbox environment.
SKILL.md
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