The Last Human: Exploring the Future of Humanity
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- The Temporal Window of Humanity
- The Population Growth of Humans
- The Agricultural Revolution
- The Industrial Revolution
- The Current Human Population
- The Uncertainties of Human Survival
- The Potential for Self-Destruction
- The Potential for Solutions
- Scenario 1: Humans Will Never Leave Earth
- The Extinction Rate of Animals
- The Potential for Human Survival
- Scenario 2: Humans Will Leave Earth
- Colonizing Other Planets
- Artificial Worlds and Habitats
- The Potential for Progress
- Scenario 3: People Leave the Solar System
- The Potential for Life on Other Stars
- The Potential for Life in Other Galaxies
- Conclusion
- Highlights
- FAQ
The Future of Humanity: How Many People Will There Ever Be?
The future of humanity is a topic that has been discussed for centuries. With the current state of the world, it's easy to feel pessimistic about our future. However, it's important to remember that every generation has thought they were living in the end times. In reality, life goes on, and we Continue to progress as a species.
In this article, we will explore the temporal window of humanity and ask the question: when will the last human be born, and how many people will there ever be? We will examine different scenarios for the future of humanity, from staying on Earth to colonizing other planets and even leaving the solar system.
The Temporal Window of Humanity
The Population Growth of Humans
Modern humans have been around for about 200,000 years. It took us 150,000 years to grow to a population of 2 million. The agricultural revolution, which occurred about 10,000 years ago, led to a significant increase in our population. However, it wasn't until the industrial revolution that our numbers really started to skyrocket. In 1800, there were a billion of us. Today, we number around 8 billion.
The Agricultural Revolution
The agricultural revolution was arguably the biggest change in our history. It allowed us to produce surpluses in food, which led to a significant increase in our population.
The Industrial Revolution
The industrial revolution was another significant turning point in our history. It led to a massive increase in our population, as well as significant advancements in technology and industry.
The Current Human Population
Over the last 200,000 years, about 117 billion humans were born and lived, and 109 billion also died. This means that about 7% of all humans that ever lived are alive right now. As many as were born in the first 150,000 years of human history. Every minute, 270 babies are born.
The Uncertainties of Human Survival
The Potential for Self-Destruction
While our population continues to grow, there are many uncertainties when it comes to our survival. We have the potential to destroy ourselves through our own inventions, such as nuclear weapons. We also carry diseases across the globe in a matter of days, and our industrial system has changed the atmosphere in the process.
The Potential for Solutions
On the other HAND, we also have the potential to find solutions to avert catastrophic risk. We can change the direction of planet killer asteroids, and we discovered antibiotics. It's hard to say whether human ingenuity will prolong or shorten our species' lifespan.
Scenario 1: Humans Will Never Leave Earth
The Extinction Rate of Animals
If we stay on Earth, a good metric to look at is the extinction rate of animals that we get from the fossil Record. The average lifespan of mammalian species is in the region of 1 million years, with some surviving up to 10 million years. Our close relative homo erectus survived for about 1.9 million years.
The Potential for Human Survival
Assuming a stable birth rate of 125 million people each year, and assuming humans will survive for a million years, this means there are roughly 100 trillion humans waiting to be born. This would make everybody alive today only 0.008% of all people that will ever live.
Scenario 2: Humans Will Leave Earth
Colonizing Other Planets
If we believe that we have a chance of surviving for maybe millions of years, then we could expand onto other planets. With resources and energy so abundant, we could sustain many times our current population.
Artificial Worlds and Habitats
Instead of living on planets, we could decide to construct our own artificial worlds and habitats. With resources and energy so abundant, we could try out different types of society and ways of life.
The Potential for Progress
More humans may actually mean more progress. With quadrillions of people waiting to be born, we will have billions of doctors working on curing cancer, billions of problem solvers working on ending poverty, and billions of video game developers making life fun.
Scenario 3: People Leave the Solar System
The Potential for Life on Other Stars
If future people can colonize, say, 100 billion stars and live there for 10 billion years, while each generating 100 million births per year, then we can expect something like a hundred octillion lives to be lived in the future.
The Potential for Life in Other Galaxies
A sufficiently advanced civilization of our descendants might even try to reach other galaxy groups. If we divide the total energy available in a galaxy by the average energy needs of a single person, then we get a tredecillion potential lives.
Conclusion
If we don't kill ourselves in the next few centuries or millennia, almost all humans that will ever exist will live in the future. This means that what we do today matters for all the people who do not exist yet. Quadrillions of unborn humans are at our mercy.
Highlights
- The human population has grown significantly over the last 200,000 years, with the industrial revolution leading to a massive increase in our numbers.
- While there are many uncertainties when it comes to our survival, we also have the potential to find solutions to avert catastrophic risk.
- If we stay on Earth, there are roughly 100 trillion humans waiting to be born. If we leave Earth, we could sustain many times our current population.
- The potential for progress is significant, with quadrillions of people waiting to be born.
- If we don't kill ourselves, almost all humans that will ever exist will live in the future.
FAQ
Q: What is the temporal window of humanity?
A: The temporal window of humanity refers to the period of time during which humans will exist.
Q: How many people will there ever be?
A: There are many uncertainties when it comes to estimating how many people there will be in the future. However, assuming a stable birth rate of 125 million people each year, and assuming humans will survive for a million years, there are roughly 100 trillion humans waiting to be born.
Q: What are the potential scenarios for the future of humanity?
A: There are many potential scenarios for the future of humanity, from staying on Earth to colonizing other planets and even leaving the solar system.
Q: Why is it important to think about the distant future?
A: It's important to think about the distant future because what we do today matters for all the people who do not exist yet. Quadrillions of unborn humans are at our mercy.
Q: What is the potential for progress in the future?
A: The potential for progress is significant, with quadrillions of people waiting to be born. This means that we will have billions of doctors working on curing cancer, billions of problem solvers working on ending poverty, and billions of video game developers making life fun.
