An automated trading agent that executes temperature-based bets on Polymarket using real-time NOAA forecast data and the Simmer API.
Install & Download
1. ClawHub CLI
The fastest way to install a skill directly from the registry.
npx clawhub@latest install weather-py
2. Manual Installation
Copy the skill folder to one of these locations
~/.openclaw/skills/ <project>/skills/ Priority: Workspace > Local > Bundled
3. Prompt Installation
Copy this prompt to OpenClaw to install it automatically.
Help me install weather-py using Clawhub. If Clawhub is not installed, install it first (npm i -g clawhub).
Prefer to download?
Get the raw skill files in a ZIP archive.
What is Polymarket Weather Trader?
The Polymarket Weather Trader is a professional-grade automation tool designed for the Openclaw Skills ecosystem. It allows users to execute weather-based prediction market strategies inspired by the famous gopfan2 methodology, which has generated significant returns. By integrating the Simmer API with NOAA meteorological forecasts, this skill identifies undervalued temperature buckets and automates the trade execution process.
Built for the Openclaw Skills framework, this tool handles the complex logic of mapping geographical locations to specific market buckets, ensuring that trades are only placed when the forecast provides a statistical edge. It provides a robust bridge between real-world weather data and decentralized finance markets, making it an essential addition to any algorithmic trading portfolio.
Polymarket Weather Trader Use Cases
- Automate temperature-based betting on Polymarket without manual monitoring
- Implement the gopfan2 weather trading strategy to capitalize on forecast discrepancies
- Monitor current weather trading positions and portfolio exposure in real-time
- Scale trading operations across multiple cities like NYC, Chicago, and Dallas
- Optimize entry and exit points using programmatic thresholds and smart position sizing
How Polymarket Weather Trader Works
- The skill scans Openclaw Skills compatible markets via the Simmer API to identify active weather contracts.
- It parses market metadata to extract specific locations and target dates.
- Real-time NOAA forecast data is retrieved for the identified location and date.
- The script identifies the specific temperature bucket on Polymarket that aligns with the current forecast.
- Safeguard checks are performed, evaluating slippage, time-to-resolution, and recent price volatility (trend detection).
- If the market price is below the defined entry threshold and all safeguards pass, a trade is executed.
- Open positions are continuously monitored and sold if the price exceeds the exit threshold.
Polymarket Weather Trader Setup
To deploy this skill within your Openclaw Skills environment, follow these steps:
- Obtain a Simmer API key from the Simmer Markets dashboard.
- Configure your environment variables:
export SIMMER_API_KEY='your_api_key_here'
export SIMMER_WEATHER_LOCATIONS='NYC,Chicago,Dallas'
- Run a dry run to verify opportunities:
python weather_trader.py
- Execute live trades with smart sizing:
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing
Polymarket Weather Trader Data Schema & Taxonomy
The skill manages configuration and tracking through environment variables and source tagging. Below is the primary configuration schema:
| Variable | Function | Default |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY |
Price floor to trigger a buy | 0.15 |
SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT |
Price ceiling to trigger a sale | 0.45 |
SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION |
Maximum USD spent per trade | 2.00 |
SIMMER_WEATHER_SIZING_PCT |
Percentage of balance for smart sizing | 0.05 |
All trades are tagged with sdk:weather to ensure distinct tracking within the Openclaw Skills ecosystem and to prevent interference from other automated agents.
Polymarket Weather Trader Advanced Features
- Smart Sizing Engine: Automatically calculates trade sizes based on available USDC balance to scale with account growth.
- Risk Safeguards: Built-in protection against severe flip-flop trading, excessive slippage, and rapid time decay.
- Trend Detection: Identifies recent price drops to filter for stronger buy signals and avoid catching falling knives.
- Multi-Location Support: Simultaneously tracks and trades markets across major US hubs including NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas, and Miami.
- Portfolio Isolation: Uses source tagging so that other Openclaw Skills or copytrading bots do not interfere with weather-specific positions.
SKILL.md
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