An autonomous trading skill that leverages NOAA weather data to execute high-confidence trades on Polymarket via the Simmer API.
Install & Download
1. ClawHub CLI
The fastest way to install a skill directly from the registry.
npx clawhub@latest install weather-trader
2. Manual Installation
Copy the skill folder to one of these locations
~/.openclaw/skills/ <project>/skills/ Priority: Workspace > Local > Bundled
3. Prompt Installation
Copy this prompt to OpenClaw to install it automatically.
Help me install weather-trader using Clawhub. If Clawhub is not installed, install it first (npm i -g clawhub).
Prefer to download?
Get the raw skill files in a ZIP archive.
What is Weather Trading (Enhanced)?
Weather Trading (Enhanced) is a sophisticated autonomous agent designed to trade temperature markets on Polymarket. By integrating real-time NOAA forecasts with a dynamic confidence model, it identifies undervalued opportunities and executes trades through the Simmer API. This skill is a prime example of how Openclaw Skills can bridge environmental data with decentralized finance to create automated trading strategies.
The system prioritizes safety and precision by implementing a quality filtering mechanism and strict position limits. It ensures trades are only placed when market liquidity and forecast confidence meet specific, user-defined thresholds. Built for the Openclaw Skills ecosystem, it allows developers and traders to deploy capital into prediction markets with a data-driven edge, moving away from manual speculation toward algorithmic execution.
Weather Trading (Enhanced) Use Cases
- Automated temperature market trading on Polymarket using live NOAA data.
- Enhancing trading strategies with dynamic confidence modeling based on forecast lead time.
- Managing risk in prediction markets through automated entry and exit thresholds.
- Filtering weather markets based on liquidity and volume to ensure high-quality execution.
How Weather Trading (Enhanced) Works
- The skill retrieves high-resolution temperature forecasts from api.weather.gov based on target US coordinates.
- It queries the Simmer API to discover available weather-related markets on Polymarket.
- A dynamic confidence score (ranging from 60% to 90%) is calculated based on how close the forecast date is to the current time.
- Markets are filtered using a quality scoring system that evaluates liquidity, volume, and time to resolution.
- Trades are executed if the market price is below the entry threshold, and existing positions are automatically sold if the exit profit threshold is reached.
Weather Trading (Enhanced) Setup
To install this skill within the Openclaw Skills framework, follow these steps:
# Create the skill directory
mkdir -p ~/.openclaw/skills/weather-enhanced/
# Place the skill files in the directory and create a .env file
echo "SIMMER_API_KEY=your_api_key_here" > ~/.openclaw/skills/weather-enhanced/.env
# Install required dependencies
pip install python-dotenv
# Run a status check to verify your balance
python scripts/status.py
Weather Trading (Enhanced) Data Schema & Taxonomy
The skill manages data through a combination of environment variables and structured API responses. It organizes its operational metadata as follows:
| Data Component | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Weather Forecasts | NOAA API | Real-time temperature and bucket data |
| Geocoding | Nominatim | Conversion of city names to latitude and longitude |
| Trade Orders | Simmer API | Execution data including orders, positions, and balances |
| Market Quality | Internal Logic | Scoring based on liquidity (40%) and volume (30%) |
| Configuration | config.json | Local storage for entry/exit thresholds and position limits |
Weather Trading (Enhanced) Advanced Features
- Dynamic Confidence Modeling: Automatically adjusts confidence levels from 90% (same-day) down to 60% for long-range forecasts.
- Market Quality Scoring: Filters out low-liquidity markets to prevent slippage and ensure trade viability.
- Smart Geocoding: Built-in support for any US city using OpenStreetMap integration.
- Autonomous Scheduling: Leverages the Openclaw Skills cron functionality to run analysis and trades every 6 hours.
- Smart Sizing: Optional flag to adjust trade sizes dynamically based on available balance and market confidence.
SKILL.md
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