Identify mispriced prediction market correlations and arbitrage opportunities for AI agents on Polymarket.
Install & Download
1. ClawHub CLI
The fastest way to install a skill directly from the registry.
npx clawhub@latest install polyedge
2. Manual Installation
Copy the skill folder to one of these locations
~/.openclaw/skills/ <project>/skills/ Priority: Workspace > Local > Bundled
3. Prompt Installation
Copy this prompt to OpenClaw to install it automatically.
Help me install polyedge using Clawhub. If Clawhub is not installed, install it first (npm i -g clawhub).
Prefer to download?
Get the raw skill files in a ZIP archive.
What is Polymarket Correlation Analyzer?
The Polymarket Correlation Analyzer is a sophisticated tool designed to bridge the information gap between related prediction markets. By leveraging correlation analysis, it identifies when the price of one market incorrectly reflects the implied probability of another. This is particularly valuable for developers building within the ecosystem of Openclaw Skills who want to create autonomous trading agents capable of spotting geopolitical or macroeconomic discrepancies.
The tool functions by analyzing pairs of market slugs, fetching real-time data, and applying conditional probability patterns. Whether comparing interest rate cuts to stock market rallies or geopolitical events to specific regional outcomes, this skill provides the mathematical foundation for high-confidence prediction market strategies in the agent economy.
Polymarket Correlation Analyzer Use Cases
- Detecting mispriced correlations between macroeconomic forecasts and market outcomes.
- Automating cross-market arbitrage for AI agents in the prediction market space.
- Identifying historical pattern discrepancies in geopolitical event pricing.
- Enhancing trading strategies within the Openclaw Skills framework for better capital allocation.
How Polymarket Correlation Analyzer Works
- The analyzer accepts two unique Polymarket market slugs as input for comparison.
- It retrieves current Yes prices and metadata using a dedicated Polymarket API client.
- The system maps the input markets to known correlation patterns or category-level defaults found in the patterns configuration.
- It calculates the expected price of the secondary market based on the first market's current price and historical conditional probabilities.
- A final JSON signal is generated, recommending a Buy or Hold action based on the detected mispricing relative to confidence thresholds.
Polymarket Correlation Analyzer Setup
To begin using this skill, navigate to the source directory and run the analyzer script with your target market slugs. Ensure you have Python 3 installed and the necessary environment for the Polymarket API client to communicate with the blockchain data.
cd src/
python3 analyzer.py <market_a_slug> <market_b_slug>
You can also access the live x402-enabled API for pay-per-query analysis on the Base L2 network for autonomous agent integrations.
Polymarket Correlation Analyzer Data Schema & Taxonomy
The skill produces a structured JSON output to ensure compatibility with automated trading workflows and Openclaw Skills integrations. Data is organized into market details, analysis metrics, and actionable signals.
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| market_a/b | Contains the question, yes_price, and category for each market. |
| analysis | Includes pattern_type, expected price, and the raw mispricing value. |
| confidence | The reliability of the signal based on pattern matches (high, medium, low). |
| signal | The final actionable recommendation: HOLD, BUY_YES, or BUY_NO. |
Polymarket Correlation Analyzer Advanced Features
- Programmable Correlation Patterns: Extend the patterns.py file with custom conditional and inverse probabilities for specific market triggers.
- x402 Pay-Per-Query API: Integrated support for autonomous agents to pay for analysis in real-time using USDC on the Base network.
- Dynamic Confidence Thresholding: High-confidence signals are automatically triggered when specific historical matches exceed a 5% mispricing threshold.
- Modular Architecture: Designed to work as a standalone CLI tool or a backend service for more complex Openclaw Skills.
SKILL.md
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